http://bugs.winehq.org/show_bug.cgi?id=20103
--- Comment #2 from GEL grimleaper1983@gmail.com 2009-10-17 05:47:08 --- The problem was DirectX9 related and nothing to do with vcredist.msi
The installer is looking for DXSetup.exe in the wrong place and cannot find it. Since installing this patch has worked for others (and indeed has worked for me once on a previous wine directory) I guess if things are set up correctly this isn't a fault with the patch.
Work-around: empty the windows/temp folder. Start the patch. Once installer is initialised (don't start the install) go to a terminal and back to windows/temp directory. You will see two folders with random names. One contains a folder Disk1 containing the extracted files setup files for the patch and another contains some the directory {32E4F0D2-C135-475E-A841-1D59A0D22989} with some installation files (including DXSetup.exe). cd to Disk1 folder and link the previous folder:
cd ~/.wine/windows/temp/ cd {7755C1F9-76C8-458F-976C-5BD4B0BA886C}/Disk1 ln -s ../../{596BAEFF-FBDB-4FD7-8491-4C235C0FC5E4}/{32E4F0D2-C135-475E-A841-1D59A0D22989} DirectX9
When the patch closes most of the temporary data will be lost so it's important to do this while the installer is running. Continue with installation as usual. One still needs the dll overrides listed in numerous other threads.