http://bugs.winehq.org/show_bug.cgi?id=30546
--- Comment #8 from nob.dir.info@gmail.com 2013-02-06 08:34:31 CST --- (In reply to comment #4)
This has something to do with a connection between the update server and the launcher. Anyway it's just a guess . What if we can bypass the updates? Something like running on the PC a virtual update server or simply modify the launcher in a way that the play button is always available. That download part is just a list that the game compares to it's own to see if it's up to date...
In fact I think it's more like a thread/data transfer problem: inserting the +ntdll debugging channel slows the program (writing things in the console needs time). Maybe the launcher is waiting for a message which was already sent but that the launcher didn't receive at the right time.