https://bugs.winehq.org/show_bug.cgi?id=57953
--- Comment #1 from Hans Leidekker hans@meelstraat.net --- The installer has a manifest that declares Windows 10 compatibility. We cap the version at 603 since 658183a803fced017e1e29f4001cec8b48748327 which makes this condition false.
Reverting that commit fixes this installer while the installer from bug 48959 still succeeds. It's a newer version but judging from the comments the launch condition is the same.