http://bugs.winehq.org/show_bug.cgi?id=33746
--- Comment #6 from Ken Thomases ken@codeweavers.com 2013-06-08 20:08:29 CDT --- Thanks for those updated logs. I'm still analyzing them.
In the meantime... I assume that Oblivion does work with the X11 driver, right? In case you're not aware, you would set this registry key to switch:
[HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Wine\Drivers] "Graphics"="x11"